The next main requirement is for the forecasts to be based on realistic, physics-based modelling. To meet this requirement, we will incorporate existing data-driven models and model results of the coronal environment and shock dynamics into the system. Specifically, we will use code to create at regular intervals (at least daily) 2D plasma maps derived directly from observations (developed by P. Zucca and described below) between 1-6 R\u0298<\/sub>. In addition, we will use 3D coronal and heliospheric plasma maps from synoptic MHD model runs, freely available through a web interface, produced by Predictive Science, Inc. daily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The third main requirement of the proposed system to produce meaningful prediction is to include the proper modelling parameters in the model chain. This will require the development of parameter tables for the particle acceleration and transport models, and derivation of meaningful correlations, based on machine learning techniques. We will carry out a targeted multi-event study on actual events to develop these tables, and use the results for an in-sample validation of the system. An out-of-sample validation will be performed on a separate set of events, which will not be used for parameter determination. These studies will allow to fine-tune the modelling parameter space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nlast technical requirement is to be able to automate the system\nexecution, and bring it to a level of minimal human interaction. This\nwill be achieved by developing the appropriate interfaces between the\nmodels, common intermediate data products, and scripting tools for\ntransferring data and streamlining operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The forecasting model chain prototype will contribute to addressing the needs of satellite operators and space agencies by providing physics-based short-term forecasting of SEP arrival times and maximum intensities in the early stages of SEP events, thereby giving lead times for mitigating the impact on sensitive satellite electronics and humans in extravehicular activities with only nominal space suit protection. In the future, the system may be linked with flare forecasting tools, improving the warning times significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n Fig.\n1<\/strong>\n\u2013 Some aspects of the elements in the proposed prototype system. A.\n<\/strong>Base\ndifference image of a coronal EUV wave originating close to the solar\nlimb. B.<\/strong>\nGeometrical model of the wave front and its interaction (green\npoints) with open (blue) and closed (orange) coronal PFSS field\nlines. C.<\/strong>\nTop-down view of the projection in the equatorial plane of the PFSS\nlines, with the expected Earth connecting points (red arc). D.<\/strong>\n2D map of coronal density (1-6 R\u0298<\/sub>),\nconstrained by AIA and LASCO observations.\nE.<\/strong>\nExample of the 3D EPREM particle model computational grid, for a\nParker-type solar wind description. F.\n<\/strong>A\nmap of radial solar wind speed, from a MAS MHD model. G.<\/strong>\nand H.<\/strong>\nModelled SEP fluxes near the Sun from an EPREM simulation with an MHD\nCME, at two locations near 10 R\u0298<\/sub>.\nI.<\/strong>\nComparison of the EPREM model fluxes from various field lines with\nobservations near 1 AU (black dots).<\/p>\n\n\n\n IMPLEMENTATION\nASPECTS<\/p>\n\n\n Fig.\n2 \u2013 <\/strong>Workflow\ndiagram of the proposed prototype system. The flow is from left to\nright. Lighter elements represent data and products, while darker\nones show software modules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Figure\n1 shows the final workflow of the proposed prototype system, as we\nenvision it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \n\t1<\/a>\u0002<\/sup>\n\tKozarev\n\tK.\n\tet\n\tal.,\n\t2017, JSWSC,\n\thttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/swsc\/2017028<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/spreadfast.astro.bas.bg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/Fig1_about.png\")
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